Uso de la prospectiva estratégica, ordenación territorial y evaluación de impacto como base para la sostenibilidad de los sistemas agrícolas
Use of strategic foresight, spatial planning and impact assessment for the sustainability of agricultural systems
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La complejidad e incertidumbre de transformar los sistemas de producción agrícola futuros en sistemas sostenibles requiere de evaluaciones holísticas y prospectivas, que involucren las interacciones dinámicas, entre agricultura, economía, sociedad y medio ambiente. En este sentido, se requieren modelos holísticos, que incluyan la prospectiva estratégica y el desarrollo territorial en la evaluación de la sostenibilidad de estos sistemas, a escala regional. Este documento, a través de análisis bibliográfico 1) identifica los avances en prospectiva estratégica, ordenación territorial y evaluaciones de impacto territorial en el contexto agrícola y los enfoques integrales de evaluación de la sostenibilidad agrícola a escala regional y 2) genera las bases para una nueva aproximación de la evaluación de la sostenibilidad del sistema agrícola a escala regional y del desarrollo territorial, con base en los avances identificados. Los resultados muestran que la prospectiva estratégica, la ordenación del territorio y las evaluaciones de impacto territorial han avanzado en un enfoque integral proporcionando, además, una visión y evaluación estratégica de los sistemas. Así, también, se mencionan como factores de éxito, el establecimiento de una buena gobernanza, la co-creación de los escenarios estratégicos, el uso de unidades homogéneas en la planificación, una amplia disponibilidad de datos ambientales y sociales con resolución espacial y temporal y la inclusión de nuevas herramientas analíticas y computacionales. La proyección del trabajo vincula los objetivos de la evaluación de los sistemas agrícolas para el desarrollo territorial sostenible, en un marco de acción integral
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